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Received:July 15, 2021 Revised:August 18, 2021
Received:July 15, 2021 Revised:August 18, 2021
中文摘要: 跑道视程反映了飞行员的视程大小, 是保障飞机起飞和着陆飞行安全的重要气象要素之一, 提升跑道视程的预测准确率将有效提升飞机在低能见度和复杂天气条件下的起降能力和航空管制能力. 跑道视程除了受自身观测仪器不足限制, 雾、烟、沙尘、强降水等其他天气对其影响也十分显著. 本文利用2012–2018年咸阳机场民航自动气象观测系统观测的风速、湿度、温度和跑道能见度等气象要素时间序列数据, 首先分析跑道视程与其他气象要素之间的长期相关关系, 并基于相关分析结果采用人工智能领域最常用的长短时记忆网络, 构建了一种机场跑道视程预测模型, 模型实验结果表明该模型在0–2小时内跑道视程预测平均拟合度能够达到72%.
Abstract:Runway visual range (RVR) reflects the pilot’s visual range, which is one of the important meteorological elements to ensure aircraft flight safety when the aircrafts take off and land. Improving the prediction accuracy of RVR will effectively improve the aircraft’s take-off and landing ability and aviation control ability under low visibility and complex weather conditions. The RVR is mainly affected by fog, smoke, dust, heavy precipitation and other weather, as well as the lack of instruments. According to the time series data of meteorological elements such as wind speed, humidity, temperature and runway visibility observed by the civil aviation automated weather observing system of Xianyang Airport from 2012 to 2018, this study firstly analyzes the long-term correlation relationship between the RVR and other meteorological observation data. On the basis of the correlation analysis, this study also uses the long short term memory network (LSTM), which is the most commonly used in artificial intelligence field, to construct an airport RVR prediction model. The experiment results show that the average fitting degree of the model can reach 72% within 0–2 h.
keywords: long short term memory network (LSTM) deep learning prediction of runway visual range time series prediction neural network prediciton model artificial intelligence
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彭路,柳俊凯,盛爱晶,张兴海,孙文正.基于LSTM的机场跑道视程预测.计算机系统应用,2022,31(5):203-212
PENG Lu,LIU Jun-Kai,SHENG Ai-Jing,ZHANG Xing-Hai,SUN Wen-Zheng.Prediction of Runway Visual Range Based on LSTM.COMPUTER SYSTEMS APPLICATIONS,2022,31(5):203-212
彭路,柳俊凯,盛爱晶,张兴海,孙文正.基于LSTM的机场跑道视程预测.计算机系统应用,2022,31(5):203-212
PENG Lu,LIU Jun-Kai,SHENG Ai-Jing,ZHANG Xing-Hai,SUN Wen-Zheng.Prediction of Runway Visual Range Based on LSTM.COMPUTER SYSTEMS APPLICATIONS,2022,31(5):203-212