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Received:August 13, 2021 Revised:September 29, 2021
Received:August 13, 2021 Revised:September 29, 2021
中文摘要: 预测进阀温度的变化趋势对阀冷系统中设备运行的安全可靠性具有重要的参考价值. 针对传统方法特征提取困难、预测精度低等问题, 提出了一种用于预测进阀温度的T2VNN (Time2Vec neural network)模型, 该模型首先通过时间序列表示学习方法Time2Vec对进阀温度进行特征提取, 然后结合TCN和双向LSTM的优势, 并且使用分位数回归来实现概率预测. 最后设计了不同时间步和分位数在多个典型模型上的对比实验, 实验结果验证了T2VNN模型具有更高的预测性能, 并且通过消融实验证明了模型中各个组成部分的有效性.
Abstract:Predicting the change trend of inlet valve temperature can provide important reference for the safety and reliability of equipment operation in valve cooling systems. For the problems of difficult feature extraction and low prediction accuracy of traditional methods, a Time2Vec neural network (T2VNN) model is put forward for predicting inlet valve temperature. This model firstly extracts the features of inlet valve temperature by Time2Vec, a time series representation learning method, and then capitalizes on the advantages of the TCN and bidirectional LSTM to achieve probabilistic prediction by quantile regression. Finally, comparative experiments with different time steps and quantiles on several typical models are designed. The experimental results verify that the T2VNN model has higher prediction performance, and the effectiveness of each component in the model is demonstrated by ablation experiments.
keywords: inlet valve temperature valve cooling system time series representation learning quantile regression
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陈霖,周宇.基于T2VNN模型的阀冷系统进阀温度预测.计算机系统应用,2022,31(6):132-140
CHEN Lin,ZHOU Yu.Inlet Valve Temperature Prediction of Valve Cooling System Based on T2VNN Model.COMPUTER SYSTEMS APPLICATIONS,2022,31(6):132-140
陈霖,周宇.基于T2VNN模型的阀冷系统进阀温度预测.计算机系统应用,2022,31(6):132-140
CHEN Lin,ZHOU Yu.Inlet Valve Temperature Prediction of Valve Cooling System Based on T2VNN Model.COMPUTER SYSTEMS APPLICATIONS,2022,31(6):132-140