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计算机系统应用英文版:2013,22(6):189-195

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IT工程时间风险的度量方法——基于正态假设和蒙特卡罗模拟的度量

王志刚^1,2, 赵俊岚³, 张丽君⁴

(1.内蒙古财经大学统计与数学学院, 呼和浩特 010070;2.中国人民大学统计学院, 北京 100872;3.内蒙古财经大学网络信息中心, 呼和浩特 010070;4.内蒙古财经大学计算机信息管理学院, 呼和浩特 010070)

Measuring Risk of the IT Project’s Time

WANG Zhi-Gang^1,2, ZHAO Jun-Lan³, ZHANG Li-Jun⁴

(1.Statistics and Mathematics College, Inner Mongolia University of Finance and Economics, Hohhot 010070, China;2.Statistics College, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China;3.Department of Network Information Center, Inner Mongolia University of Finance and Economics, Hohhot 010070, China;4.Computer Information Management College, Inner Mongolia University of Finance and Economics, Hohhot 010070, China)

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本文已被：浏览 1551次下载 2844次
Received:February 21, 2013 Revised:March 20, 2013

中文摘要: IT工程时间风险是IT工程中的最主要的风险之一, 现有的IT工程时间风险的度量方法大多是直接基于专家打分的度量结果, 导致结果的精度不够, 给实际应用带来了不便. 为了改善该问题, 文中提出两个不同的分析路径来解决估计结果的离散问题, 一种是特定分布假设条件下IT工程时间风险度量方法, 主要步骤是首先设定每一步IT时间服从的分布, 然后在理论上推导出特定概率保证下IT工程时间风险的计算公式, 最后利用专家打分值计算得到IT工程时间风险的度量值; 另一种是利用蒙特卡洛模拟度量IT工程时间风险方法, 在设定好分布形态后计算相应的IT工程时间风险度量值. 最后文中利用上述两种方法度量了一个简单小型项目在不同概率情况下的时间风险值, 结果表明利用蒙特卡洛模拟度量IT工程时间风险方法在满足度量精度的条件下, 具有更广的适用面.

中文关键词: IT工程时间风险正态分布蒙特卡洛模拟

Abstract:Risk of the IT Project's Time is one of the most important risks in IT projects. Most of the existing IT engineering time risk metrics is directly based on Experts Grading Method metric results, so the accuracy of the results is not enough to bring the practical application of the inconveniencing. In order to solve this problem, two different analytical paths are proposed in this paper. The first risk measurement method is to measure the risk in the specific distribution assumptions on IT Project's time; the second one is using the Monte Carlo simulation to measure IT project time risk. And finally, the risk of a simple small-scale IT projects Time is measured using the two methods. The result shows that the measure IT project time risk method using Monte Carlo simulation can meet the precision, and it is applicable to a wider area.

keywords: risk of the IT Project’s Time normal distribution Monte Carlo simulation

文章编号： 中图分类号： 文献标志码：

基金项目:内蒙古自然科学基金(2010MS1011)

Author Name	Affiliation
WANG Zhi-Gang	Statistics and Mathematics College, Inner Mongolia University of Finance and Economics, Hohhot 010070, China Statistics College, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
ZHAO Jun-Lan	Department of Network Information Center, Inner Mongolia University of Finance and Economics, Hohhot 010070, China
ZHANG Li-Jun	Computer Information Management College, Inner Mongolia University of Finance and Economics, Hohhot 010070, China

Author Name	Affiliation
WANG Zhi-Gang	Statistics and Mathematics College, Inner Mongolia University of Finance and Economics, Hohhot 010070, China Statistics College, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
ZHAO Jun-Lan	Department of Network Information Center, Inner Mongolia University of Finance and Economics, Hohhot 010070, China
ZHANG Li-Jun	Computer Information Management College, Inner Mongolia University of Finance and Economics, Hohhot 010070, China

引用文本：
王志刚,赵俊岚,张丽君.IT工程时间风险的度量方法——基于正态假设和蒙特卡罗模拟的度量.计算机系统应用,2013,22(6):189-195
WANG Zhi-Gang,ZHAO Jun-Lan,ZHANG Li-Jun.Measuring Risk of the IT Project’s Time.COMPUTER SYSTEMS APPLICATIONS,2013,22(6):189-195