Daily Water Level Prediction Based on SSA-LSTM Model—Case Study of Guoyang Sluice in Guohe River Basin
CSTR:
Author:
  • Article
  • | |
  • Metrics
  • |
  • Reference [24]
  • |
  • Related [20]
  • | | |
  • Comments
    Abstract:

    Accurate prediction of the water level can guide urban flood control and calamity reduction, as well as water conservancy construction to improve the speed of urban flood emergency response. Data-driven water level prediction models, especially the long short-term memory (LSTM) models, have shown advantages in simulating the strong nonlinear relationships of hydrological elements in nature and thus are widely used. However, the collection of hydrological data in nature is often accompanied by noise and human interference factors, which affect the prediction performance of the models. To address this problem, this study develops a new prediction model combining singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and LSTM, i.e., the SSA-LSTM model. Specifically, SSA first decomposes the observed time series into periodic, trend, and noise components, and then LSTM is used to train the model on the denoised time series to obtain the final prediction results. In this study, the water levels of Guoyang Sluice in the Guohe River Basin from May 1971 to December 2020 are selected as the data set for experiments: 1) The original time series data of water levels are decomposed into multiple trend and noise components (RC1RC12) by SSA, and the components (RC1RC10) are selected as the trend term and reconstructed into a new water-level time-series signal. 2) The reconstructed signal is trained and verified by the LSTM model, and the predicted results are compared with those of the LSTM model. 3) To obtain the optimal SSA-LSTM model, this study conducts single-step prediction performance evaluation experiments for different time steps (7, 14, 21, 28, and 35 d). The experimental results reveal that the coefficient of determination R2, root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the SSA-LSTM water-level prediction model are better than those of the LSTM model at different time steps. The pre-processing of the water level at the Guoyang Sluice by SSA can effectively improve the prediction effect of LSTM. Compared with the traditional LSTM models, the SSA-LSTM model has the characteristic of high reliability and low errors and is more adaptable in water-level prediction applications, which can provide a better decision basis for the rational scheduling of urban flood control, irrigation, water supply, and other water conservation measures.

    Reference
    [1] E.柯利亚, 胡子江, 姜源. 全球灾害趋势及其风险影响分析. 水利水电快报, 2012, 33(9):13-14.
    [2] 张利荣, 庞林祥. 2021年河南"7·20"特大暴雨重大险情处置关键技术措施. 中国防汛抗旱, 2022, 32(4):25-30
    [3] 林森, 孙宁, 李建文, 等. 洪涝灾害监测和风险评估业务概述. 中国减灾, 2022, (5):40-41.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1002-4549.2022.05.013
    [4] 王中根, 夏军, 刘昌明, 等. 分布式水文模型的参数率定及敏感性分析探讨. 自然资源学报, 2007, 22(4):649-655.[doi:10.3321/j.issn:1000-3037.2007.04.017
    [5] 惠强. 基于人工智能的洪水预报算法的研究与实现[硕士学位论文]. 西安:西安电子科技大学, 2020.
    [6] 周唱. 基于深度学习的水库洪水预报研究[硕士学位论文]. 济南:山东大学, 2021.
    [7] Valipour M, Banihabib ME, Behbahani SMR. Comparison of the ARMA, ARIMA, and the autoregressive artificial neural network models in forecasting the monthly inflow of Dez dam reservoir. Journal of Hydrology, 2013, 476:433-441.[doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.11.017
    [8] Luppichini M, Barsanti M, Giannecchini R, et al. Deep learning models to predict flood events in fast-flowing watersheds. Science of the Total Environment, 2022, 813:151885.[doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151885
    [9] Zhang D, Lindholm G, Ratnaweera H. Use long short-term memory to enhance Internet of Things for combined sewer overflow monitoring. Journal of Hydrology, 2018, 556:409-418.[doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.11.018
    [10] Park K, Jung Y, Seong Y, et al. Development of deep learning models to improve the accuracy of water levels time series prediction through multivariate hydrological data. Water, 2022, 14(3):469.[doi:10.3390/w14030469
    [11] 刘威, 尹飞. 一种基于LSTM模型的水库水位预测方法. 无线电工程, 2022, 52(1):83-87.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1003-3106.2022.01.012
    [12] Liu MY, Huang YC, Li ZJ, et al. The applicability of LSTM-KNN model for real-time flood forecasting in different climate zones in China. Water, 2020, 12(2):440.[doi:10.3390/w12020440
    [13] Alizadeh B, Bafti AG, Kamangir H, et al. A novel attention-based LSTM cell post-processor coupled with Bayesian optimization for streamflow prediction. Journal of Hydrology, 2021, 601:126526.[doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126526
    [14] 袁梅雪, 魏守科, 孙铭, 等. 基于小波去噪和LSTM的Seq2Seq水质预测模型. 计算机系统应用, 2022, 31(6):38-47.[doi:10.15888/j.cnki.csa.008506
    [15] Cui ZJ, Qing XX, Chai HX, et al. Real-time rainfall-runoff prediction using light gradient boosting machine coupled with singular spectrum analysis. Journal of Hydrology, 2021, 603:127124.[doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127124
    [16] Vautard R, Yiou P, Ghil M. Singular-spectrum analysis:A toolkit for short, noisy chaotic signals. Physica D:Nonlinear Phenomena, 1992, 58(1-4):95-126.
    [17] 张亚杰, 崔东文. 基于奇异谱分析的SPBO-ANFIS月径流组合预测模型. 人民珠江, 2022, 43(5):137-144, 153.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2022.05.020
    [18] 王丽丽, 李新, 冉有华, 等. 基于奇异谱分析-灰狼优化-支持向量回归混合模型的黑河正义峡月径流预测. 遥感技术与应用, 2020, 35(2):355-364
    [19] Hochreiter S, Schmidhuber J. Long short-term memory. Neural Computation, 1997, 9(8):1735-1780.[doi:10.1162/neco.1997.9.8.1735
    [20] An LX, Hao YH, Yeh TCJ, et al. Simulation of karst spring discharge using a combination of time-frequency analysis methods and long short-term memory neural networks. Journal of Hydrology, 2020, 589:125320.[doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125320
    [21] Gao S, Huang YF, Zhang S, et al. Short-term runoff prediction with GRU and LSTM networks without requiring time step optimization during sample generation. Journal of Hydrology, 2020, 589:125188.[doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125188
    [22] Ghodsi M, Hassani H, Rahmani D, et al. Vector and recurrent singular spectrum analysis:Which is better at forecasting. Journal of Applied Statistics, 2018, 45(10):1872-1899.[doi:10.1080/02664763.2017.1401050
    [23] Cho K, Kim Y. Improving streamflow prediction in the WRF-Hydro model with LSTM networks. Journal of Hydrology, 2022, 605:127297.[doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127297
    [24] Apaydin H, Sattari MT, Falsafian K, et al. Artificial intelligence modelling integrated with singular spectral analysis and seasonal-trend decomposition using Loess approaches for streamflow predictions. Journal of Hydrology, 2021, 600:126506.[doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126506
    Cited by
Get Citation

张子谦,鲍娜娜,闫星廷,李秀安,傅振扬,韦伟.基于SSA-LSTM模型的日水位预测—以涡河流域涡阳闸为例.计算机系统应用,2023,32(1):316-326

Copy
Share
Article Metrics
  • Abstract:
  • PDF:
  • HTML:
  • Cited by:
History
  • Received:June 10,2022
  • Revised:July 06,2022
  • Online: November 16,2022
Article QR Code
You are the first992297Visitors
Copyright: Institute of Software, Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ICP No. 05046678-3
Address:4# South Fourth Street, Zhongguancun,Haidian, Beijing,Postal Code:100190
Phone:010-62661041 Fax: Email:csa (a) iscas.ac.cn
Technical Support:Beijing Qinyun Technology Development Co., Ltd.

Beijing Public Network Security No. 11040202500063