Traffic Volume Survey Data Trend Prediction Based on SSA-LightGBM
CSTR:
Author:
Affiliation:

Clc Number:

Fund Project:

  • Article
  • |
  • Figures
  • |
  • Metrics
  • |
  • Reference
  • |
  • Related
  • |
  • Cited by
  • |
  • Materials
  • |
  • Comments
    Abstract:

    In order to solve the problem that the traditional model and the machine learning model have poor performance in predicting the periodic time series, this study proposes the SSA-LightGBM prediction model which takes the Hancheng expressway traffic volume survey data as the data set. First, the Passenger Car Unit (PCU) of Hancheng expressway data is calculated. Second, the singular spectral analysis is applied on the PCU data to obtain periodic and random terms, the periodic term is reconstructed, and then the LightGBM is used to predict the random term. Finally, the predicted random term and the periodic extension signal are superimposed to obtain the prediction data of final expressway PCU. At the same time, compared with the prediction results of XGBoost and LightGBM model, the prediction results of SSA-LightGBM are closest to the true values, and MAE, RMSE and R2 are better. This result has a good guiding significance for the research of the forecast on future change trend of our country’s expressway volume survey data, and provides a good reference value for the renovation and maintenance of our country’s expressways.

    Reference
    Related
    Cited by
Get Citation

徐磊,孙朝云,李伟,杨荣新.基于SSA-LightGBM的交通流量调查数据趋势预测.计算机系统应用,2021,30(1):243-249

Copy
Share
Article Metrics
  • Abstract:
  • PDF:
  • HTML:
  • Cited by:
History
  • Received:June 02,2020
  • Revised:June 30,2020
  • Adopted:
  • Online: December 31,2020
  • Published:
Article QR Code
You are the firstVisitors
Copyright: Institute of Software, Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ICP No. 05046678-3
Address:4# South Fourth Street, Zhongguancun,Haidian, Beijing,Postal Code:100190
Phone:010-62661041 Fax: Email:csa (a) iscas.ac.cn
Technical Support:Beijing Qinyun Technology Development Co., Ltd.

Beijing Public Network Security No. 11040202500063