Time Series Forecasting Based on Echo State Network Optimized by Improved Backtracking Search Optimization Algorithm
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    Abstract:

    Echo State Network (ESN) owns simple network structure and is coupled with a time parameter and thus it shows important theoretical and application values in time series forecasting. In this study, we propose to optimize the output weight matrix by Adaptive Backtracking Search optimization Algorithm (ABSA) to overcome overfitting problem caused by linear regression algorithm. ABSA adopts adaptive mutation factor strategy to replace the strategy of randomly given mutation factor in standard BSA to achieve the balance between convergence accuracy and convergence rate. Experimental results show that the ESN optimized by ABSA outperforms the basic ESN without optimization and the ESNs optimized by other EAs.

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胡率,肖治华,饶强,廖荣涛.改进回溯搜索优化回声状态网络时间序列预测.计算机系统应用,2020,29(1):236-243

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History
  • Received:May 22,2019
  • Revised:June 21,2019
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  • Online: December 30,2019
  • Published: January 15,2020
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