基于改进D-S证据和融合权集的安全风险评估
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Security Risk Assessment Based on Improved D-S Evidence and Fusion Weight Set
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    摘要:

    针对信息化系统安全风险评估过程中安全风险因素指标的重要性难以赋权的问题, 本文以建筑工地施工现场为应用场景, 提出一种基于改进的D-S证据理论与融合权集结合的安全风险评估模型. 首先, 在充分研究建筑工地安全风险评估流程和要素的基础上, 建立建筑工地安全评价体系; 其次, 采用基于权值分配和矩阵分析的D-S合成算法改进AHP法和基于数据的熵权法计算评价体系中指标层中各指标的主、客观权重; 然后, 运用改进的D-S证据融合算法进行多源证据的合成, 获取指标权重, 避免单一赋权的片面性, 得到最优综合权重; 最后, 根据TOPSIS评价算法计算建筑工地综合评价指数. 分析表明, 基于改进D-S证据理论-融合权集的安全风险评估模型, 能有效评估建筑工地施工现场的安全性, 降低评估结果的不确定性, 提高风险评估结果可信度.

    Abstract:

    Since it is difficult to assign weights to the importance of safety risk factor indicators in the process of safety risk assessment of informatization systems, this study proposes a safety risk assessment model based on improved D-S evidence theory and fusion weight set with a construction site as the application scenario. Firstly, the safety risk assessment process and elements of the construction site are fully studied, and a safety evaluation system for the construction site is established. Secondly, the D-S synthesis algorithm based on weight assignment and matrix analysis is used to improve the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method, and the entropy weight method based on data is adopted to calculate the subjective and objective weights of each indicator in the index layer of the evaluation system. Thirdly, the improved D-S evidence fusion algorithm is used to synthesize multi-source evidence to obtain the indicator weights, so as to avoid the one-sidedness of a single assignment and get the optimal comprehensive weight. Finally, the comprehensive evaluation index of the construction site is calculated according to the TOPSIS evaluation algorithm. The analysis shows that the safety risk assessment model based on the improved D-S evidence theory and fusion weight set can effectively assess the safety of construction sites, reduce the uncertainty of assessment results, and improve the credibility of risk assessment results.

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姜太平,程中.基于改进D-S证据和融合权集的安全风险评估.计算机系统应用,2023,32(7):155-162

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  • 收稿日期:2022-11-08
  • 最后修改日期:2023-01-06
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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-05-12
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