Congestion phenomenon occurs frequently in wireless monitoring network as excessive load of some local node, which is caused by some negative factors such as attenuation, multipath, blind and so on, and then lead to reliable data transmission can not be guaranteed. From the view of congestion control, a predictable based congestion control algorithms based on the design idea of initiative to avoid the congestion is proposed to realize adaptive congestion control which considers link quality indicator LQI when selecting a new route, and obtains the network traffic forecast future values according time series ARMA prediction algorithm, thus determine the congestion degree of a node to take measures in advance. The experimental results show that, the algorithm can improve the reliability of the wireless monitoring system of data transmission, and can improve the throughput.