DMLSTM: 动态注意力与记忆增强LSTM的雷达回波外推
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中央在川高校院所“聚源兴川”项目 (2024ZHCG0190); 四川省科技成果转移转化示范项目 (2024ZHCG0176); 四川省科技计划青年科技创新研究团队项目 (2024NS-FTD0044)


DMLSTM: Radar Echo Extrapolation with Dynamic Attention and Memory-enhanced LSTM
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    摘要:

    雷达回波外推被广泛用于降水预测和气象灾害预警等任务, 近年来结合深度学习的时序预测模型有效提升了预测效果, 但是仍然存在着全局依赖建模不足、预报图像模糊等问题. 为了提升预测精度, 提出一种融合动态窗口注意力与长短期记忆网络的雷达回波外推模型DMLSTM (dynamic window attention memory-enhanced LSTM). 首先, 通过动态双缩放窗口注意力精准捕捉多尺度气象结构; 同步采用记忆增强型滑动窗口维持时空连续演化; 再由自适应残差门控单元抑制长程特征衰减并增强突变响应; 最终, 借梯度对齐型多尺度注意力损失函数保持关键气象结构的物理运动约束. 实验结果表明, 在深圳雷达回波数据集上, 相较最优基线模型(SwinLSTM-B), 本研究模型参数量小幅增加, 经结构优化后, 单轮推理耗时增加5%, 但均方误差(MSE)降低了10.3%, 结构相似性(SSIM)提升了1.4%. 在Moving MNIST数据集上, MSE降低14.9%, SSIM达0.926. 实验结果验证了该模型在雷达回波外推任务的先进性及其泛化能力.

    Abstract:

    Radar echo extrapolation is widely used in tasks such as precipitation forecasting and meteorological disaster warning. In recent years, temporal prediction models combined with deep learning have effectively improved forecasting performance. However, several challenges still remain, including insufficient global dependency modeling and blurred forecast images. To improve prediction accuracy, this study proposes a radar echo extrapolation model, DMLSTM, which integrates dynamic window attention memory (DM) with long short-term memory (LSTM) networks. First, dynamic dual-scale window attention is applied to accurately capture multi-scale meteorological structures. Meanwhile, a memory-enhanced sliding window is employed to maintain continuous spatiotemporal evolution. Subsequently, an adaptive residual gating unit suppresses long-range feature attenuation and enhances responsiveness to sudden changes. Finally, a gradient-aligned multi-scale attention loss function is introduced to preserve the physical motion constraints of key meteorological structures. Experimental results indicate that, on the Shenzhen radar echo dataset, compared with the best baseline model (SwinLSTM-B), the proposed model slightly increases the number of parameters. After structural optimization, the single-round inference time increases by 5%, while the mean squared error (MSE) decreases by 10.3% and the structural similarity (SSIM) increases by 1.4%. On the Moving MNIST dataset, the MSE is reduced by 14.9% and the SSIM reaches 0.926. These experimental results demonstrate the advanced performance and strong generalization capability of the proposed model in radar echo extrapolation tasks.

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卢奇玮,戈文一,胡靖,魏敏. DMLSTM: 动态注意力与记忆增强LSTM的雷达回波外推.计算机系统应用,,():1-11

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  • 收稿日期:2025-09-25
  • 最后修改日期:2025-10-14
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-03-02
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