DTFNet: 基于时频协同分解网络的时间序列预测
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DTFNet: Time Series Forecasting Based on Time-frequency Cooperative Decomposition Network
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    摘要:

    时间序列预测在气象预报、电力负荷预测与金融管理等领域具有广泛应用, 近年来深度学习方法在该任务中取得显著进展. 然而, 现有模型在应对非平稳性和异质模式建模方面仍存在局限, 主要表现为对趋势与季节分量的同质化建模与分解过程中的模态混叠问题. 本文提出一种名为DTFNet的时频协同分解网络, 通过设计时域-频域并行的异构结构, 在时域利用抗噪性强的MLP网络建模趋势项的长期演化特性, 在频域采用快速傅里叶变换提取周期性季节成分, 并通过多尺度卷积操作捕捉时频特征间的空间关联. 同时, 本文引入基于离散小波变换(DWT)的分解方法, 替代传统移动平均分解, 有效缓解边界效应与模态混叠问题. 在6个公开数据集上的实验结果表明, DTFNet在准确性和鲁棒性方面均优于现有主流模型. 消融实验结果表明, 本文提出的离散小波变换分解模块以及时频协同建模结构在提升时间序列预测精度方面具有显著效果. DTFNet具备良好的通用性, 能够应用于多种时间序列预测任务, 为电力负荷预测、天气预报等实际应用场景提供有力的支持.

    Abstract:

    Time series forecasting finds widespread applications in such fields as weather forecasting, power load forecasting, and financial management. In recent years, deep learning has made remarkable progress in these tasks. However, existing models still have limitations in struggling with non-stationarity and heterogeneous pattern modeling, which is mainly represented by homogenized modeling of trends and seasonal components, and modal aliasing during decomposition. To this end, this study proposes a time-frequency cooperative decomposition network, termed as DTFNet, which designs a heterogeneous architecture with parallel time and frequency domains. In the time domain, an MLP network with strong noise resistance is employed to model the long-term evolution characteristics of trends, while in the frequency domain, fast Fourier transform is adopted to extract periodic seasonal components, with multi-scale convolution operations employed to capture spatial correlations between time-frequency characteristics. Meanwhile, this study introduces a decomposition method based on discrete wavelet transformation (DWT) to replace conventional moving average decomposition, effectively mitigating boundary effects and modal aliasing. Experiments on six public datasets demonstrate that DTFNet outperforms the current mainstream models in both accuracy and robustness. Ablation experiments show the notable effectiveness of the proposed DWT-based decomposition module and dual-domain time-frequency modeling architecture. Featuring sound generalization ability, DTFNet is applicable to multiple time series forecasting tasks, offering powerful support for real-world applications such as power load forecasting and weather forecasting.

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魏祥麒,顾晶晶. DTFNet: 基于时频协同分解网络的时间序列预测.计算机系统应用,2026,35(1):52-63

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  • 收稿日期:2025-06-17
  • 最后修改日期:2025-07-07
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-11-17
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