基于WOA-VMD-CNN-Transformer的超短期风速组合预测
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甘肃省自然科学基金(23JRRA1323); 甘肃省重点研发计划(22YF7GA040); 甘肃省电力重点研发基金 (B7270622001Y)


Ultra-short-term Wind Speed Combined Prediction Based on WOA-VMD-CNN-Transformer
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    摘要:

    为了进一步提高风速预测性能, 挖掘风速的无序性和非线性特征, 提出了一种基于WOA-VMD和CNN-Transformer的超短期风速预测方法. 首先, 为了降低风速预测的复杂度, 本文使用鲸鱼优化算法优化变分模态分解算法参数, 能够将风速序列有效分解为若干个不同频率的模态分量, 实现原始风速数据去噪. 其次, 对分解的风速子序列分别构建CNN-Transformer深度学习组合预测模型, CNN用于捕捉输入风速序列的局部时序特征和变化趋势, 然后将这些特征输入Transformer模型. Transformer模型在已经提取局部特征的基础上建模长距离依赖关系, 捕捉全局序列信息和复杂的依赖关系. 最后, 将各分量的预测结果进行叠加作为最终预测结果, 使用不同地区风速数据集进行实验, 实验结果表明, 本文方法具有较好的预测性能, 能够满足风速预测的需求, 具有较好的实用性.

    Abstract:

    To further improve the performance of wind speed prediction and to explore the nonlinear characteristics and disorder of wind speed, an ultra-short-term wind speed combined prediction model based on WOA-VMD and CNN-Transformer is proposed. First, to reduce the complexity of wind speed prediction, the whale optimization algorithm is employed to optimize the parameters of the variational mode decomposition algorithm. The wind speed sequence is effectively decomposed into several modal components with different frequencies, enabling denoising of the original wind speed data. Second, CNN-Transformer deep learning combined prediction models are constructed for the decomposed wind speed sub-sequences. CNN is used to capture the local temporal features and variation trends of the input wind speed sequence, and these features are then fed into the Transformer. The Transformer model constructs long-range dependencies based on the extracted local features to capture global sequence information and complex dependencies. Finally, the predicted results of each component are superimposed to obtain the final result. Wind speed datasets from different regions are used for experiments. The experimental results show that the proposed method exhibits good prediction performance, can meet the requirements of wind speed prediction and demonstrates good practicability.

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刘洋,王遂缠,刘昊,钟斌斌,赵文,秦烁.基于WOA-VMD-CNN-Transformer的超短期风速组合预测.计算机系统应用,2025,34(12):260-269

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  • 收稿日期:2025-04-23
  • 最后修改日期:2025-05-15
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-10-21
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