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Received:December 02, 2015 Revised:January 14, 2016
Received:December 02, 2015 Revised:January 14, 2016
中文摘要: 准确地预测机场客流量对机场的建设和发展有着至关重要的作用. 在三亚机场2005-2015年客流量数据的基础上，分别采用Holt-Winter季节模型、ARMA和线性回归模型分别对三亚机场2016-2017年的客流量进行了预测. 为了减少预测误差提高预测精度，采用了组合加权的方法对数据进行了组合预测. 经验证，该方法可以作为有效预测机场客流量的一种方法.
Abstract:Accurate passenger-flow forecast has always been playing the crucial role on the construction and development of the airport. This passage based on the data of passenger flow from 2005 to 2015 at Sanya Phoenix International Airport is proposed to predict the flow from 2016 to 2017 by adopting Holt-Winter seasonal model, ARMA model and liner regression model. In order to promote the forecasting accuracy, the portfolio weight method is used to forecast the result and reduce the error. According to the verification, this measure is one of the effective ways to predict the passenger flow.
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基金项目:2014年三亚市院地合作科技项目（2014YD52）
引用文本：
刘夏,陈磊,李苑辉,杨萍,陈明锐.基于组合方法的三亚机场客流量预测.计算机系统应用,2016,25(8):23-28
LIU Xia,CHEN Lei,LI Yuan-Hui,YANG Ping,CHEN Ming-Rui.Sanya Airport Passenger Flow Forecast Based on Combination Forecast Method.COMPUTER SYSTEMS APPLICATIONS,2016,25(8):23-28
刘夏,陈磊,李苑辉,杨萍,陈明锐.基于组合方法的三亚机场客流量预测.计算机系统应用,2016,25(8):23-28
LIU Xia,CHEN Lei,LI Yuan-Hui,YANG Ping,CHEN Ming-Rui.Sanya Airport Passenger Flow Forecast Based on Combination Forecast Method.COMPUTER SYSTEMS APPLICATIONS,2016,25(8):23-28
